Crispin Odey makes a comeback with his bearish short bets on UK assets, particularly GBP and Gilts, UK sovereign bonds.
The UK is experiencing an accelerated catastrophic decline triggered by a string of disastrous policies, from Brexit to an attempt to expand the public deficit to counteract the detrimental economic impact of Brexit.
So UK prime ministers have been falling like dominoes since the country’s controversial decision to Brexit in 2016, which has already toppled five PMs.
So when political ideologies collide with strategic interests, unintended consequences can often occur.
The fallout of exiting the EU, the world’s largest two trillion dollar trading bloc and proximity to the UK, is now on the wall.
“UK prime ministers have been falling like dominoes since the country’s controversial decision to Brexit in 2016, which has already toppled five PMs”
WEALTH TRAINING COMPANY
The UK economy is suffering, like no other major economy since Brexit
Out of all of the G7 economies, the UK economy was singled out to contract 2023 by 0.6% in 2023, according to a recent IMF report.
The IMF attributes its downbeat forecast to rapid interest rate rises, tax rises, higher borrowing costs for businesses, and still high domestic energy prices. The IMF said the UK was having to navigate a very complex environment.
A no-deal Brexit could be back on the table. If so, it would be the worst-case scenario for the UK, to exit the EU without a formal trading agreement.
So in IMF’s words, a “complex environment” implies conducting difficult negotiations with the EU where the outcome could be more damage to the UK economy.
If the UK dealing with the EU, post Brexit goes pear-shaped, that could put further stress on GBP, gilts, and the world’s oldest political union, the Union Jack.
For Scotland and Ireland, English Brexit is not appetizing, so a messy rupture from the EU could fan the flames of a second Scottish Independence referendum. Then the Irish could get the Independence bug, and there goes the Union Jack, and the rest is history.
“Collapses happen slowly and then very suddenly,” said novelist Hemingway.
“Collapses happen slowly and then very suddenly”
So when foreign policy is driven by ideology and not national interests the decline accelerates. Sympathy with Ukraine, but would it be more in the UK’s national interests to build mutual respect in a mutual trading relationship with energy-rich Russia?
Would British industry and its people benefit from a safe and plentiful source of affordable energy, which could help reindustrialize the north of the country? Better to be in a two trillion dollars trading zone, and even better to steer its direction to your benefit.
“Crispin Odey makes a comeback, and the 63-year-old hedge fund manager has fully recouped losses accumulated between 2015 and 2020”
– Wealth Training Company
Crispin Odey makes a comeback shorting UK assets which have become profitable due to ill throughout policies
Crispin Odey is celebrating his best-ever year of gains since he started his hedge fund three decades ago.
His flagship European Inc. hedge fund surged 152% last year.
Crispin Odey’s best gains in 2022 came from leveraging short wagers on long-dated UK government bonds as political turmoil and inflation wreaked havoc on the UK economy.
A spokesman for London-based Odey Asset Management declined to comment.
So Crispin Odey makes a comeback, and the 63-year-old hedge fund manager has fully recouped losses accumulated between 2015 and 2020 when his bearish wagers repeatedly failed to pay off.
The fund was up as much as 193% in 2022 but gave up some of the gains during the fourth quarter.
“Just as Crispin Odey was acquitted of indecent assault in March 2021”
– Wealth Training Company
Crispin Odey makes a comeback, but misconduct allegations continue to rattle the hedge fund manager
Just as Crispin Odey was acquitted of indecent assault in March 2021 after he was accused of having groped a young female banker at his home in 1998, a battery of women appeared out of the woodwork and put forward their case for sexual misconduct allegations.
In the last case, the judge determined that the complainant’s evidence was “littered with troubling inconsistencies” and described her as “at the very least, an unreliable historian”.
Odey was told by judge Nicholas Rimmer that he could leave the court with his “good character intact”.
But last month, December The Times reported that more allegations have been made against the hedge fund founder, which reportedly took place after his acquittal.
The newspaper was reporting on a podcast produced by Tortoise Media which first made the story public. On its website, the Tortoise team wrote: “One of Britain’s richest and most powerful men was cleared of sexual assault last year. Four more women have come forward with similar allegations that Crispin Odey, a major donor to the Conservative party, sexually assaulted them. Other women allege that he sexually harassed them at the offices of his Mayfair hedge fund company.”
So Crispin Odey makes a comeback, but allegations of sexual misconduct are clouding his success.
Is this a case of if you are big and bet against the UK in a big way and profit from it henchmen come after you?