Jeffrey Gundlach predicts a Trump win in the US presidential elections scheduled for November 3.
Jeffrey Gundlach is a heavyweight fixed-income investor and founder of DoubleLine fund, which oversees $138 billion. In financial circles, Jeffrey Gundlach is known as the bond king, with his fund primarily weighted towards sovereign (government) and corporate debt.
“Jeffrey Gundlach predicts a Trump win in the US presidential elections scheduled for November 3”
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Jeffrey Gundlach keeps a sharp eye on presidential elections, and he has a knack for successfully predicting the winning candidates
But Jeffrey Gundlach predicts a Trump win at a time when most polls are predicting a blue wave, with the Democrats winning both chambers. So polls are predicting former vice president Joe Biden to make a crushing Trump in next week’s presidential election, which is an event keenly watched by a global audience.
“The polls right now say he isn’t going to win, but they said that four years ago” said Jeffrey Gundlach referring to the following election prediction chart.
Political polls are manufactured reality, and they are not reliable, so Jeffrey Gundlach predicts a Trump win based on other factors
“Public political polls are often designed to create impressions rather than illustrate reality and shouldn’t be trusted” he said.
“The polls right now say he isn’t going to win, but they said that four years ago”
Jeffrey Gundlach pointed out that many Trump voters are unwilling to engage with pollsters and the media because they fear retribution for their political beliefs, also known as the “shy voter” phenomenon. In other words, how the electorate behaves in public can sometimes be the reverse of what they do in private.
“Over 10% Of Trump Voters Won’t Admit Preferences to Pollsters.” Biden also faces an enthusiasm problem, said, Gundlach.
“You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but the risk is not what you’re getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that party’s candidate isn’t saying what some of his policy positions are” said Jeffrey Gundlach.
“Well, if you think 2020 is weird, just wait until 2024. You ain’t seen nothing yet” – Jeffrey Gundlach
“With Trump, I think you have more certainty,” he said. “With Biden, you have peak uncertainty because there’s been very little information given to the public” he added.
Jeffrey Gundlach doesn’t think Biden is a socialist, but that pressure by the Democratic Party’s base, his administration would pursue higher taxation and socialist policies.
Jeffrey Gundlach, however, notes that Biden’s running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris is “one of the most left-leaning people in all of the Senate.” So, a Biden win could also mean a Harris presidency. But an outrageous amount of deficit spending would be detrimental to financial markets. “That would pose a big problem for stock and bond markets” said Jeffrey Gundlach.
Renewable energies would be boosted by a Democratic win, but it would be at cost to US oil, particularly fracking. Biden has promised for a transition away from oil and gas which, if so, would hurt economically Texas and Pennsylvania.
Jeffrey Gundlach predicts a Trump win, but he also sees big problems ahead
Jeffrey Gundlach believes economic inequality strained by fiscal and monetary policy would come to the point of some sort of revolution
“Well, if you think 2020 is weird, just wait until 2024. You ain’t seen nothing yet” he said.