Peter Schiff reiterates his dollar decline view, and could the perma dollar bear, gold bull be bang on the money? 

A broken clock gets it right twice a day. Eventually, time will be on Peter Schiff’s call, a decline of the US dollar.

Fiat currencies have a historic tendency to eventually lose value, and go to zero. The decline of a currency’s exchange value typically occurs over a four-decade period in a backdrop of geopolitical and financial economic conditions. In the latter case, when a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio approaches or exceeds 200%, there is a high probability that the fiat currency will lose its value.

The US national debt to GDP is forecast to hit 130.26% next year, 2025.

For a reserve currency, a dethrone typically unfolds during a major geopolitical event, the outcome of a war, where the hegemonic world order is successfully contested by an upcoming rival superpower.

The 1956 Suez Crisis, where Britain withdrew its forces after being instructed by Washington to do so was the geopolitical event marking the dethroning of the pound sterling GBP and the fall of the sun that never set on the British Empire. 

“Fiat currencies have a historic tendency to eventually lose value, and go to zero”


Exactly two decades later, in 1976, Britain was bankrupt and humiliated and ended up going with cap in hand for an IMF loan.

Today, in 2024, one in four people in the UK lives in poverty. The living standards of its people have collapsed due to a string of failures, deindustrialisation, Brexit and a debased currency, which increased the cost of living.  

In 1972, GBP to USD was 2.649, and in 2024 it is 1.27. 

British young people are more pessimistic about the future than the youth in India. 

Similar challenges threaten the USD reserve status, spiralling public deficit to GDP and a US-centric unilateral world order challenge, the big one being the Ukraine war, which has taken on a global dynamic.

The two great superpowers, Russia and the US are now in a deadly nuclear staring contest. The Ukraine war is escalating beyond Europe.

In retaliation to the US and allies’ weapons striking Russian territory, a Russian Yasen-Class Nuclear sub with hypersonic nuclear-tipped city killer payloads, locked and loaded is lurking 150 km off the US coastline. The Russian red line has crossed. Either one side blinks, or we are in a nuclear missile exchange apocalypse. Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 with no JFK in the White House. 

“British young people are more pessimistic about the future than the youth in India”


If Biden blinks, Peter Schiff reiterates his dollar decline view could be true, with Russia absorbing Ukraine in its orbit

The US dollar would wither on the wine as the US-centric world order dies in the Ukraine battleground. It would be the USD Suez Crisis moment, the last battle that buried the dollar. Africa, the Middle East and Asia, half the world would triumph, seeing US hegemony end. Europe would be divided, and the pivot east would begin.

The caveat with Peter Schiff reiterates his dollar decline view, being a euro decline could eclipse the USD

War in Europe, the rise of the far right and a recession could trigger a euro sovereign debt crisis worse than 2013 that could also bury the euro before the USD. EU countries could abandon the union pivot East and join the BRICs alliance. 

Europe could become divided and war-torn again, which benefits GDP and the USD in a beggar thy neighbour playout.

Rival bipolar worlds could evolve, the West Atlanticists versus the East BRICS, competing for hegemony.

Janet Yellen has said it won’t be easy to ‘get around’ the greenback, but the failure of US sanctions to starve the Russian war machine has proven her wrong. Russian GDP 1.2% in2022, 3.6% GDP in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024 could only be possible with a BRICS system independent of 

US-centric world. 

The U.S. dollar saw a 9% decline in its share of global reserves in 2023.

“I think [the dollar is] going to be knocked off its pedestal” – Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff reiterates his dollar decline view and recommends investors prepare for “a major dollar decline.”

If so, G7 fiat currencies, a derivative of the USD, could also lose their purchasing power.  

The transfer of wealth from sovereign bonds could be in its infancy as persistent inflation continues.

Where to invest if Peter Schiff reiterates his dollar decline view playout?

Inflation hedges such as commodities could be a good play.

The rise of BRICS is good for commodity-rich countries that can sell their natural resources at market prices. 

However, the end of commodity exploitation of the unilateral world order could result in higher inflation.  

Precious metals, gold and silver, are a safe haven for populations with little confidence in the fiat debt monetary system.  

“I think [the dollar is] going to be knocked off its pedestal,” Schiff said on the podcast. “I think it’s going to lose its status as the reserve currency.”

“I think what’s going to happen is the world is going to reject the dollar like we rejected gold [in 1971] — and it’s going to go back on the gold standard,” Schiff predicted. The gold standard was a monetary system from the 1870s to the 1920s, where the value of currencies was determined by a specified gold amount.

Real Estate could be another inflation hedge if fiat currencies fail.

The caveat with real estate investing is the asset is not portable, subject to domestic politics and nearly worthless in wartime. Moreover, real estate prices are a function of available and affordable credit. 

The value could deflate to realistic wage-price levels in a currency crisis. Real estate purchases with cash would be least impacted by a credit bubble burst.       

Alternative investments inflation hedge if Peter Schiff reiterates his dollar decline view playout

Fine Wines and whisky, Art and classic cars, and collector items from comic books to antique firearms could all be a good store of value if fiat currency turns to junk.  

Frankly, fine Wines and whisky could be a good one, the way things are going.

At the very least, you can chill out with a drink.