Peter Schiff sees doom in the data and ongoing trend to revise down expectations in macro data, which does not bode well for the economy.
The last batch of data resulted in revisions to job numbers, and a declining manufacturing sector flagged an economy in a downturn.
Superficial data, Peter Schiff, sees doom by looking beneath the data
July 12 saw an optimistic jobs report overshadowed by downward revisions for May and April figures:
“They were expecting 189,000 jobs created, and we exceeded that with 206,000 jobs. … Biden once again bragged that the jobs created were over 200,000 for the month,” he said.
He noted that the current Biden administration took credit for the latest July job report. But according to Peter Schiff, there is nothing good here.


“They were expecting 189,000 jobs created, and we exceeded that with 206,000 jobs. … Biden once again bragged that the jobs created were over 200,000 for the month”
PETER SCHIFF
“Of course, he took credit for those jobs. But as is normally the case, once you look beneath the surface— and you do not have to look deep beneath the surface—you get another weak jobs report,” he said.
“We start with their downward revisions because there were quite a few downward revisions. Both of the prior months were revised down. So April was revised down by 57,000 jobs, and May was revised down by 54,000 jobs. That’s not insignificant,” he said.
In other words, market expectations for the jobs report have been lower since April. The bar is being lowered for political gain, so the administration is putting a positive spin on the deteriorating employment situation.
Bill Clinton’s political advisor, James Carville, said famously, when it came to elections, it was the economy, stupid.
We need to look at some non-partisan facts about jobs, bearing in mind the Jobs report is partisan and does not give an accurate view of reality.

“once you look beneath the surface— and you do not have to look deep beneath the surface—you get another weak jobs report”
PETER SCHIFF
Intellizence tracks companies announcing layoffs and hiring freezes. Layoffs in the first week of July showed a growing worrying trend of layoffs.
- Recent layoffs of the week, July 09, 2024: US-based Westgate Resort laying off 357 employees to streamline operations.
- July 08, 2024: British fashion house Burberry is laying off hundreds of employees amid a sizable stock selloff.
- July 06, 2024: Massachusetts-based software company UKG lays off 14% of its workforce, 2,200 employees.
- July 05, 2024: UniQure cuts jobs after selling Lexington facility.
- July 04, 2024: OpenText plans to lay off 1,200 staff and add 800 positions.
“We are not making stuff and consuming bigger trade deficits” – Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff sees doom in the weak manufacturing job growth, which he argues is indicative of the economic woes in America.
“The government now says that it was zero.
In May, there were no additional jobs in the manufacturing sector, and 8,000 jobs were lost in June. Again, these are the productive jobs that we need people making stuff,” said Peter Schiff.
“We are not making stuff and consuming bigger trade deficits,” he said.
He thinks it is a weak job report that is also inflationary.
Peter Schiff sees stagflation, a weak economy, and more inflationary pressures.
Adding weight to Peter Schiff sees doom in the data is a fifty-year low in the labour force participation rate, which is just 62.6%.
Nearly 40% of the working-age population that could work is not participating in the workforce earning a wage.
It would be foolhardy to believe that this massive reserve army of labour, left on the scrap heap, does not need a job to pay for necessities.
Peter Schiff notes that the worker participation rate is weak and indicative of an economy in decline.
Hidden in the latest jobs report is the following;
“The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. It was 4% in the prior month unrevised, and it went up to 4.1%. That is significant,” she said.
“Gold is holding at a very high price. I expect many of these gold mining companies to report much better earnings than the street expects”
– Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff thinks that the official statistics touted are still too optimistic.
Rising unemployment to crush demand-pull inflation is what Fed Chair Powell precisely wants to see to begin their rate-cut cycle.
So, while Peter Schiff sees doom in the rigged unemployment numbers, that is likely what the bond bulls are hoping for, a recession and rate cuts.
Peter Schiff noted changes in government statistical methods paper over underlying economic fault lines.
“That is why when you look at these rigged unemployment numbers, you come to the conclusion that we have a strong economy with low unemployment, and you do not understand why Biden is so unpopular because the way we are keeping track of these economic statistics is wrong,” said Peter Schiff.
“If we measured the economy the way we did before 1994— you can see why so many people are so miserable,” he added.
Peter Schiff remains bullish on gold as the precious metal hovers closer to $2400/oz. He also sees gold mining stocks improving.
“Gold is holding at a very high price. I expect many of these gold mining companies to report much better earnings than the street expects because gold is holding its price for longer than these analysts pencilled into their earnings forecast.
So I still think that this is the best way right now to play the gold sector is through these mining stocks. I think they’re still dirt cheap. There’s incredible value there. People should be buying these stocks,” he said.
But what could dampen the future near-term gold gains is a potential bond recovery
The jobs data really shows an economy in recession. If it is a deeper recession than the market anticipates, then that could lead to more future rate cuts by the Fed, and we could see a bond rally in the second half of 2024.
Future capital flow into yield-earning treasury bonds could take the shine off its rival haven asset, gold.
The takeaway from Peter Schiff sees doom in the data is to avoid taking official data at face value, and scratching beneath the surface is more likely to lead to the truth.