Pierre Andurand racks up losses as the famed oil trader’s wager bet, crude oil hitting $140 by year-end fails to come into play.
Pierre Andurand trading has had its ebbs and flows over these tumultuous few years; the pandemic lockdown of the global economy, the war in Europe and erratic monetary policy from a decade-long unprecedented easing to whiplash record tightening in a year. The consequences of all that almost blew the collateral chain off the entire financial system, the catalyst for last March’s bank runs.
“Pierre Andurand racks up losses”
WEALTH TRAINING COMPANY
But inflation in all the items households regularly need (food, shelter, medicines, cooking/heating gas) continues to burn bright, despite the Fed’s nearly 500 basis point rate hikes in 2022.
Meanwhile, in all the items that households already have, there is deflation as the economy crumbles under the weight of the central bank tightening in a bust.
Pierre Andurand racks up losses from his long trades in oil as he holds his conviction, his position of $140 crude oil a barrel by year-end
But with the global economy on the edge of a cliff, these higher prices Pierre Andurand is betting on are unlikely to be driven by demand.
A global recession equals less demand for oil.
Could supply-side dynamics save Pierre Andurand racks up losses bets?
If the major oil producer, Saudi Arabia continues to cut oil production output in response to a slowing global economy that could drive prices higher.
In early April Saudi Arabia and a handful of other countries stunned the world by announcing significant cuts in their oil production – totalling more than a million barrels of oil per day – starting in May.
“with the global economy on the edge of a cliff, these higher prices Pierre Andurand is betting on are unlikely to be driven by demand”
WEALTH TRAINING COMPANY
Pierre Andurand racks up losses which he blames on the recent bank runs and recession fears
Andurand’s oil hedge fund slumps 40% as commodities retrench.
The recent fall in oil prices is due to ongoing banking jitters and fears that the global economy could be entering a protracted recession, according to hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand of Andurand Capital.
Moreover, electric vehicles could eventually reduce gasoline demand and cause oil demand growth to slow in the coming years, Andurand told the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.
He thinks demand will peak around 2030. “Even when we peak, oil demand won’t fall so fast. We will reach peak demand towards 110 million barrels per day and then a slow decline from there,” he said.
March’s peak bank run fears was when Pierre Andurand racked up losses, the greatest, with the fund slumping 40% so far this year.
“the fundamentals, a rapidly slowing global economy, rising corporate layoffs and a collapse in business investment is the reason for demand crushing and prices sliding” – Wealth Training Company
Pierre Andurand believes that the recent falls are not backed by fundamentals and that all the indicators he uses were getting more bullish
But the fundamentals, a rapidly slowing global economy, rising corporate layoffs and a collapse in business investment is the reason for demand crushing and prices sliding.
So unless collapsing demand is offset by supply cuts or supply disruptions, natural disasters, war prices could fall further.
Pierre Andurand ‘s losses this year have wiped out all of last year’s gains. His fund surged 154% in 2020, 87% in 2021 and 59% in 2022.
