Ray Dalio sheds light on big cycles and discusses the Ukrainian Russian War within the context of the “Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder,” which he explains in Chapter 6 of his book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.
“I will focus most on the Big Cycle that began in 1945 and is now 77 years old. I will briefly review how the big cycle of external conflicts typically works in the context of the rises and declines of empires and world orders,” he wrote.
“I will focus most on the Big Cycle that began in 1945 and is now 77 years old”
RAY DALIO
Ray Dalio sheds light on big cycles and ponders whether the Russian occupation of Ukraine will spiral into a wider conflict dragging NATO countries into a war
NATO is bolstering troops near bordering NATO countries if Putin decides to mobilize the Russian army further westward.
Article 5 of NATO “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.”
It is worth adding that Mikhail Gorbachev, a former Soviet statesman,requested that Russia join NATO, but the UK and the US both declined the proposal.
The Ukrainian war has brought Sweden and Finland closer to NATO. Putin’s redline was for Ukraine requesting to join NATO with nuclear missiles pointed at Russia, which means Russia had not enough reaction time to respond to an attack.
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”
NATO Article 5
So for the history books, Russia’s Lavrov should ask again whether Russia can join NATO. If NATO agrees to include Russia as a member, then it would be the beginning of the de-escalation of tensions and world peace. If Russia wants to join NATO but NATO again rejects Russia’s membership then inquisitive minds should ask why.
Ray Dalio sheds light on big cycles and believes that the economic sanctions could cause the toppling of the Putin regime
“The big step-up in sanctions recently announced will have very damaging effects on the Russian economy without much cost to NATO countries, especially if the conflict continues for an extended amount of time,” wrote Ray Dalio. “The economic pain that Russians will feel will be so bad that it would be surprising if there wasn’t big internal opposition to Putin’s policies that could threaten or topple his regime,” he added.
“Putin will respond by upping the ante by giving NATO countries something big to lose” – Ray Dalio
Here is the crux of Ray Dalio sheds light on big cycles, which could lead to war
“Putin will respond by upping the ante by giving NATO countries something big to lose, what that will be, and how it will be handled, or b) whether he can successfully backpedal to have some sort of compromise (unlikely). Putin giving NATO countries something big to lose (e.g., in a nuclear confrontation) would be worrisome,” he said.
Indeed, Putin’s war tactics in Ukraine, people sharing the same European ethnicity as Russian, indicates that he would have the stomach for a nuclear confrontation with the west, particularly if he felt his life was threatened.
Ray Dalio sees China and Russia aligned in many ways
China is developing a SWIFT alternative CIPS China.
We believe China will exploit the current situation by acting as an intermediary. “I think a more compelling argument can be made for China not helping,” said Ray Dalio.
Russia is a military power with a relatively small economy and will need to be aligned with China, wrote Ray Dalio.
“Shortly before there is a military war, asset freezes/seizures, Blocking capital markets access Embargoes/blockades,” he wrote.
