The recent Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks could give investors a heads-up about the trajectory of geopolitics, which has been a hot potato for investors in 2022.
In the Northern hemisphere, Autumn and the 13F season are underway.
Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks disclosed in the SEC Form 13F
So the bone we have dug out is a 13F SEC form, which is a quarterly report filed by hedge funds with at least $100M in assets under management to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Data displayed, in the Berkshire 13F Form here, shows stocks, changes in value, and the number of shares compared with the last quarter.
“Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks could give investors a heads-up about the trajectory of geopolitics”
WEALTH TRAINING COMPANY
Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks and the anomaly
Surprisingly despite the most turbulent year for investors in more than forty years which has seen trillions of dollars wiped off assets, across all asset classes, Warren Buffett’s changes to the Berkshire portfolio in Q3 were relatively insignificant.
So reading the Berkshire 13F Q3 form is about as riveting as trainspotting, that is until browsing down the list you spot the issuer, Taiwan Semiconductor.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire portfolio held zero holdings as of June Q2, 2022 but that all changed in September Q3. The so-called Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett backed up the truck and bought 60,060,880, valued at $4.1 billion of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWD) stocks, according to the latest Berkshire 13F Q3 form.
Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks and improving US-China relations
Before the age of GPS global satellite position navigation instruments, navigators used maps and a three-point fix. So they would take a site on the land, take a compass reading, then take another landmark and repeat the process two more times. The three lines were then plotted on a chart and the intersection represented their position or bearings on a map. Knowing your bearings and where the potential danger lies in your proximity is vital for sailors, pilots and investors.
“Warren Buffett backed up the truck and bought 60,060,880, valued at $4.1 billion of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWD) stocks”
WEALTH TRAINING COMPANY
Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks (acquisition of TWD), represent one point of the geopolitical landscape
Warren Buffett, a billionaire value investor investment maxims are like maths to engineering or Latin to modern European languages
Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks are a landmark on the investment landscape
US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi face-to-face meeting at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia is another landscape mark for investors to take bearing.
“The two presidents agreed that their respective diplomatic teams should maintain strategic communication and conduct regular consultations; their financial teams will continue dialogue and coordination on macroeconomic policies, economic ties, and trade …They agreed to make good use of the China-US joint working group to promote the resolution of more issues,” a readout from China’s Foreign Ministry said.
“Buffett buying a chip maker is not unusual, but the fact that it is a Taiwan chip maker is” – Wealth Training Company
Could this be a turning point in US-China relations?
There is nothing extraordinary about the great value investor Warren Buffett buying stocks in a chipmaker.
All assets, particularly stocks, are significantly lower in the wake of central bank tightening. Fourth-revolution technologies guzzle chips, and the transition to electrification of mass transport will ensure the current chip glut will not last long.
Buffett buying a chip maker is not unusual, but the fact that it is a Taiwan chip maker is.
For months geopolitical watchers have been warning about the potential of a China Taiwan imminent invasion as the flash point to trigger WW3.
In the wake of Berkshire’s Q3 $4.1 billion of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWD) stocks and China-US bilateral relations thawing, the risk of a Taiwan invasion could have diminished.
If so, then Warren Buffett’s Berkshire’s $4.1 billion in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TWD) makes sense.
But the three-point fix methodology needs another landscape compass bearing to determine where China-US bilateral relations are on the geopolitical map.
Has the Shanghai Composite Index finally reached the trough and is on the way up?
“Berkshire’s largest position remains Apple at 894.8 million shares of $123.7 billion” – Wealth Training Company
More takeaways from Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks
- Louisiana Pacific ($297 million) and Jefferies ($12.8 million).
- Exited one position: what was formerly a $180 million stake in STORE Capital
Added to holdings in Chevron, Occidental, Paramount, Calenese, and RH:
- Occidental: 35.8 million shares, up 23% to 194.4 million valued at $11.9 billion, representing 21% of shares outstanding
- Chevron Corp.: 3.92 million, up 2.4% to 165.4 million valued at $23.8 billion, representing 8.4% of shares outstanding
- RH: 190,000, up 8.8% to 2.36 million valued at $580.7 million, representing 9.9% of shares outstanding
- Paramount Global Class B: 12.8 million, up 16% to 91.2 million valued at $1.74 billion, representing 15% of shares outstanding
- Celanese Corp.: 553,469, up 6% to 9.71 million valued at $877.2 million, representing 9% of shares outstanding
- Trimmed holdings in Activision, US Bancorp, BofNY Mellon, Kroger, and General Motors:
- U.S. Bancorp: 42 million shares, down 35% to 77.8 million valued at $3.14 billion, representing 5.2% of shares outstanding
- Activision Blizzard Inc.: 8.26 million, down 12% to 60.1 million valued at $4.47 billion, representing 7.7% of shares outstanding
- Bank of New York Mellon Corp.: 10.1 million, down 14% to 62.2 million valued at $2.4 billion, representing 7.7% of shares outstanding
- Kroger Co.: 2.17 million, down 4.1% to 50.3 million valued at $2.2 billion, representing 7% of shares outstanding
- General Motors Co.: 2.88 million, down 5.4% to 50 million valued at $1.6 billion, representing 3.4% of shares outstanding
Berkshire’s largest position remains Apple at 894.8 million shares of $123.7 billion as of Sept 30. Other top 5 holdings are:
- Bank of America Corp.: unchanged at 1.01 billion valued at $30.5 billion
- Chevron Corp.: up 3.92 million, to 165.4 million valued at $23.8 billion, representing 8.4% of shares outstanding
- Coca-Cola Co.: unchanged at 400 million valued at $22.4 billion
- American Express Co.: unchanged at 151.6 million valued at $20.5 billion
In short, Warren Buffett portfolio tweaks indicate no signs an imminent stock market crash
The billionaire remains happily invested.